Compilation - March 2020
* Created: [time=Sat, Apr 11, 2020 2:48 PM]
* ###### tags: `notes`
## TKP - scott adams
1. Media training
- You don’t have to answer the questions. If you have something you want to say, say it; as long as it’s interesting, you’re probably okay
2. We all have filters
- People who are writing non-fiction believe they’re telling you what is objectively true in the world, but we don’t have that capability.
- all reality are fiction. but this is semantics lah...?
3. Never Be Sure
- Whatever the topic, identifying as only 90% confident makes it much easier to change your mind
- Always be asking yourself, “How might the opposite of what I believe possibly be true?”
- Another variant: “What information would I have to get to change my mind?”‘
- And remember, there are plenty of times throughout history where scientists were absolutely sure of something that later turned out to be wrong
4. how to know when simple is inaccurate?
- well, nothing is accurate... everything is nuanced and contextual
- the person who has the simplest explanation is almost always the least informed, which is a problem because the part of what makes you think your explanation is right and simple is that you don’t know the nuance of the situation
## TKP - that science exploring curiosity thing
- cover x uncover (RE:teaching)
- calculus is the math of change
- astronomy is more advanced, than biology because of speed?
- bygones be bygones
- premature goals
- "at what point would you know it's not working?"
## North Star - Adam Robinson - discovering secrets
- Oh, THIS is exactly the concept I was trying to articulate, about [seeing the invisible rules and games in the world](http://proses.id/the-unknowns/).
- lessons from chess. complete incomplete world, accurate inaccurate. static or dynamic rules
- and the idea of the thought before every move, "what if I'm wrong"
## Billy Bross - copywriting webinar (with Khe Hy, radreads)
- specificity. paint picture
- use powerful word
- curiosity principle
- people open it because of you, not your subject line
- know your asks, build it around that
- would you open and appreciate this email yourself?
- tell a story, repurpose n repackage it. reuse a message at least 3 times (email, tweetstorm, mini podcast)
- what do they need to know in order to buy
resonate, be authentic, genuine, have intellectual honesty
know who you're talking to, use their language
AoC - Christina Wodtke or sth, introvert networking
the idea of networking is similar to gardening instead of hunting.
the low touches, "thought of you", which I am doing.
## Jameela Jamil with Sam Smith (I Weigh, episode 1)
* not a man not a woman just me
* I'm at war with my body
* self love is not a destination. it's a practice
## Ramit Sethi on IG live March 18th
- panic is bad, overreaction is good
- create emergency fund for 1 year
- step 1: min expense per month
- money NOW is worth money later
## Ramit Sethi on IG live March 27th (3 biz rules)
- it has to make money
- forget about scale
- what do they get? what are you selling really
- what do you get? what's your why?
## Ramit Sethi on IG live March 28th (money rules learned from 2009)
- Recessions aren't just about $. The human toll is far worse
- If you have savings, you can weather the storm
- Don’t get overconfident. When things get bad, they get bad everywhere
- even during downtime, opportunities are out there. "during contraction, everyone stop spending" is a myth
- what will people still buy at these times? groceries. clean water. power. fuel. change management, advice, financial management
- people who grew up during 08-09 became generationally afraid of investing
- emergency fund is for emergency
- mistake #1: considering using it for other stuff like investing, and
- mistake #2: not using it for an actual emergency e.g. stop going to work)
- how to downsize as a biz owner. be straightforward. check 19:25 for example convo script
- 22:00 is there difference between 08-09 and now? nobody knows yet, no one can tell. we will know more, but we're really in an early stage of it right now. the change will take time, to go through the system. it will affect more people than you can possibly imagine. how this lettuce gets to your hand, it's long chain of processes. there are so many people involved in the economy. and now it's ground to a virtually complete halt. gonna be incredibly challenging to unravel
- 23:25. we don't know yet what's the value of housing's gonna be. who cares what everyone's prediction and projection's gonna be. it's just one voice (including his). buying properties make sense now if the value in the long term don't matter because you're planning on living there for a minimum of 10 years. you don't care if you sell it you'll lose money because it's your dream house. it's an expenditure not an investment.
- then I looked up the difference between expense and expenditure, hasn't found a good solid answer, haha
- Expenditure is incurred when you create an asset or reduce your liability..it is a kind of investment...a term which is associated with long run...But expenses are necessary maintenance charges used in short run .. salary, depreciation cost
- but Ramit's way of explaining this doesn't fit this description.
- expenses are those costs which are incurred to earn revenues whereas, expenditure is the cost which is spent on purchase or growth of fixed assets.
- senada, expenditure ada sisi "investment"-nya
- 31:30. other fields aside from psychology that helps in your biz strategy. STS. how society x technology influences each other. be aware of the fact that you need to make deliberate conscious effort to design diversity, how you shape the culture and tech and tools of choice. sociology is helpful to understand how network work together and people work in broad levels.
- 38:22. to process and let yourself feel the feeling, feel horrible (after being laid off)
### The FI/RE interview mentioned
- what I would challenge people to do is to realize that you can save cost, but what are you losing? While you are optimizing for an extra two or three or $4? And a lot of times, the truth is, most people don’t know what else they would do with their free time.
- If you don’t have anything else going on, then of course you’re going to fall into this rigid spreadsheet driven life, because it provides control and safety for you.
- You know, your your spreadsheets are never going to turn their back on you. Your spreadsheets always going to speak logic to you. But sometimes the most valuable things in life are not simply in the spreadsheet.
- I actually think that the most valuable things in life are living outside of the spreadsheet. It’s you saying yes to your wife, maybe even saying to your wife, hey, we’re going to be totally spontaneous today. Who knows what’s going to happen where we’re just going to do it, and I don’t care how much it costs time or money.
## Perell - Danco
the key interesting takeaway for me is this idea of hero - villain in your writing.
## Yuval, why are we panicking or sth like that
- objective reality, and fictional realities that we create. stories. nations, god, corporation, money.
- people don't need more info. they need a map of reality, or tool to construct such a map. how to find your way in this enormous ocean of info without drowning in it. I don't have the magic bullet (answer) on how to do it, but (I'd suggest you to) focus your attention that this is your greatest task.
- would you find it hard to believe that an algorithm could know you better than you know yourself? e.g. from analysing the pattern in your behavior. because we are biased, have our own narrative, denying reality. we don't see reality as it is.
- method is to focus on the most important questions and allow the questions to lead me. relevant and big questions that need not be confined to some domain. you will likely find that you won't find the answer to your Q in just biology or history. you need to go multidisciplinaries
## Recession Coming! Economics 101 - Investing With Rose
Recession Coming! Economics 101 (HOW BAD WILL IT GET?) - Investing With Rose
(01:27) three topics covered
- what are the characteristics of a recession
- what factors will influence how quickly we get out of it
- how to survive and even thrive
### what are the characteristics of a recession
Why it's bad?
- corporate debt
- falling oil price
- mass layoffs
- politics, oppositions in gridlock
Definition of a recession: decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. visible in: reduced GDP, income, employment, industrial production, wholesale-retail sales
In the US, personal consumption accounts for 70% of GDP. Food, services, non biz. 45% of that is services (eating out, travel, beauty).
This looks bad because (all in the context of US)
- unemployment rate published till March 14th was 281k. it was 3.5%, record low. gonna be published first friday every month (april 3rd). in the great depression it was 24.9%. now predicted to hit 30% by the 2nd Q of 2020
- interest rares are already at record low, so it can't save the day this time.
- we also have high debt:income ratios, companies are over-leveraged. which was ok in normal times, masih ketutup, masih bisa bayar utang yg makin bertambah. dengan asumsi pendapatan juga ikut naik kan.
- global corporate debt (excluding financial firms) has risen from 84% in 2009 to 92% in 2019. and in the US it rises from 43% to 47%
- lack of strong leadership to execute swift and decisive policy. (10:00)
### what factors will influence how quickly we get out of it
As a perspective, in the great depression, the exchange is down 90% from the all time highs. right now it's 30%. in 2008 it was 52%.
- monetary stimulus: cut interest rates, purchasing assets (corporate debts and securities backed by consumer loans), printing money
- fiscal stimulus: tax cuts, social programmes, bailouts, helicopter money
### how to survive and even thrive
- preserve cash. create emergency fund (3-6 months, ramit says 12 months)
- negotiate your loans, rents, just cut expenses. get reduced installments, grace period, interest only, etc
- keep calm and get in. buy index funds